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Handicapping

  Tournament Handicap System

*Odds of shooting an Exceptional Tournament Score
*Probability of Two Best Scores Beating Handicap
*Pope of Slope website
*Fact Sheet for my club to use to implement the Tournament Handicap System

Knuth Tournament Point System

  Since the USGA Handicap System added the provision of Exceptional Tournament Scores in 1992, player handicaps have been automatically reduced for tournament scores that are dramatically better than those scores recorded in casual play.

Net competitions

Frank H. Chapman Memorial Cup (Net)

Tee It Forward — Fall Net Championship

Father & Son (Older)

Four-Man Team

Four-Ball Stroke Play Championship

Pro.-President, Golf & Green

Senior Four-Man Team

Senior Four-Ball Stroke Play

Tee It Forward — Spring Net Championship

Volunteers Day

Francis B. Warner Cup (Net)

Winter Series events

  The Golf Association of Philadelphia, after analyzing 15 years of data, believes the Exceptional Tournament Scores section of the Handicap Manual, 10-3, could use a boost. In that vein, this off-season the Executive Committee unanimously approved the addition of the Knuth Tournament Point System. This system, to be used for all NET competitions, individual and team with more than 50 competitors, is modeled closely after the Knuth Tournament Point System. Dean Knuth, the system’s creator, served as the United States Golf Association's Senior Director of Handicapping, GHIN and Green Section Administration from 1981-97. He was the prime developer of the USGA's Course Rating and Slope Rating System that is used throughout the United States and in most foreign countries today. He was and is recognized as the top expert in the world on handicapping and course rating.

  Following Knuth’s model, the Knuth Tournament Point System assign’s points to individuals based on Top 5 finishes in NET competitions (5 points for first place to 1 point for fifth place. Ties receive full points for the higher placing) which meet the aforementioned criteria. Those points are calculated over a two-year period and adjusted on a rolling basis. For example, an event in 2005 would no longer count in the formula once that event is completed in 2007, even if that tournament is held later in the year than in prior seasons and covers more than the two-year period.

  The Golf Association of Philadelphia has modified the point system as follows. The tournament handicap of players with point totals in the 7-8 range will be automatically adjusted by deducting two strokes; 9-10 points will be automatically deducted three strokes and 11 points and higher will be automatically deducted four strokes (the maximum). The GAP Tournament Handicap System is totally predetermined and involves no subjective judgment.

  The Executive Committee believes this is a fair system for giving everyone an equal chance to win.

  The last two years of NET competitions were used to determine the current list compiled by the Golf Association of Philadelphia.

  According to Knuth’s website, if we assume that all golfers are abiding by the score posting guidelines established by the USGA Handicap System, then each competitor should have the same chance as the next to win in tournaments. For example, if an individual played in 100 tournaments of 100 players, each player should win once.

  Knuth’s website continued, while it is true that some competitors do play better in competition than they do in everyday casual play, it is the opinion of many that most competitors seem to not score as well in competition as they do in their casual rounds. There are competitors that finish near the top quite often, yet never seem to play well enough to have their handicap reduced under Section 10-3.

  Below are two charts. One demonstrating the odds of shooting an Exceptional Tournament Score and the second showing the probability of an individual’s two best scores beating his handicap.

Odds of shooting an Exceptional Tournament Score

 

Handicap Ranges

0-5

6-12

13-21

22-30

<30

Net Differential

odds

odds

odds

odds

odds

0

5:1

5:1

6:1

5:1

5:1

-1

10:1

10:1

10:1

8:1

7:1

-2

23:1

22:1

21:1

13:1

10:1

-3

57:1

51:1

43:1

23:1

15:1

-4

151:1

121:1

87:1

40:1

22:1

-5

379:1

276:1

174:1

72:1

35:1

-6

790:1

536:1

323:1

130:1

60:1

-7

2349:1

1200:1

552:1

229:1

101:1

-8

20111:1

4467:1

1138:1

382:1

185:1

-9

48219:1

27877:1

3577:1

695:1

359:1

-10

125000:1

84300:1

37000:1

1650:1

874:1

Probability of Two Best Scores Beating Handicap

The values in this table only include pairs of best negative differentials and determines how many strokes a golfer's handicap should be reduced to allow his best two differential likelihood to be an acceptable "rarity."

As an example, consider the golfer whose best two differentials of his last 20 scores were -6 and -8 and the player has a handicap of 15. This event would have a 1 in 7,249 chance. If a threshold of 1 in 258 was established as the limit of reasonability, this player should have his handicap lowered three strokes (three diagonal steps to the left in the following table).

 

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

-8

-9

-10

0

27

46

92

199

408

869

1808

2480

3871

9180

85779

-1

46

13

26

58

118

253

526

722

1126

2672

24967

-2

92

26

20

43

89

191

398

546

853

2023

18907

-3

199

58

43

59

121

258

537

737

1150

2728

25492

-4

408

118

89

121

200

427

888

1219

1903

4512

42163

-5

869

253

191

258

427

821

1708

2343

3657

8672

81030

-6

1808

526

398

537

888

1708

3385

4644

7249

17189

****

-7

2480

722

546

737

1219

2343

4644

6225

9716

23041

****

-8

3871

1126

853

1150

1903

3657

7249

9716

14912

35361

****

-9

9180

2672

2023

2728

4512

8672

17109

23041

35361

82951

****

-10

85779

24967

18907

25492

42163

81030

****

****

****

****

****